InertialAI
InertialAI

InertialAI-Forecast

v0.1

Probabilistic forecasting for production signals. inertialai-forecast returns low-latency calibrated quantiles from signal history. inertialai-forecast (reasoning) adds a reasoning layer when calendar events, inspection images, logs, or analyst notes should change the forecast.

InertialAIinertialai-forecast
Base

Time-Series Only

Production forecasting

Calibrated quantiles from the time-series alone. Built for dashboards, automation, alerting, and high-volume jobs where history is enough.

8,192-point context
1,024-step horizon
Up to 9 quantiles
Median forecastbase
Best when the forecast should follow observed demand, traffic, usage, or sensor patterns without external overrides.
InertialAIinertialai-forecast (reasoning)
Context

Context-aware

Forecast with audited reasoning

Reads text, structured context, and images, then applies a traceable adjustment when outside events should move the forecast.

Text + data
Images
Rationale
Adjusted forecastcontext
Context

Promotion starts Monday, supported by a 35% increase in ad spend.

Reasoned adjustment

Near-term demand should lift above the signal-only forecast.

Benchmarked on GIFT-Eval

On the official GIFT-Eval suite (97 tasks, error normalized by the seasonal-naive baseline), inertialai-forecast posts the best MASE among the listed benchmark systems.

Forecast accuracy — MASE
Lower is better · longer bar = better
inertialai-forecast0.6989
Chronos-20.7042
Toto-2.00.7126
TiRex0.7237
TimesFM0.7360
Moirai-20.7420
0.6989
GIFT-Eval MASE
#1 across listed benchmark systems
97 tasks
Benchmark
Official GIFT-Eval, seasonal-naive normalized
5
Foundation models compared
Chronos-2, Toto-2.0, TiRex, TimesFM, Moirai-2
27,490 win/s
Throughput
Triton gRPC · batch 512

inertialai-forecast (reasoning)

The reasoning layer reads your context and any attached images, then applies a single audited adjustment to the forecast. On controlled scenarios it selects the correct operation 100% of the time — versus 57% for hand-written rules — and delivers roughly 4× lower CRPS.

It also improves a plain forecast with no text at all: by computing properties of the series — non-negativity, integer counts, material recent volatility — it repairs calibration the base model leaves behind, lowering CRPS 1.49% on GIFT-Eval and tightening interval coverage (0.737 → 0.774). It can also explain a forecast in plain language. Send text or an image and the request routes here automatically.

Scenario CRPS — vs rule-based automation
Lower is better · longer bar = better
inertialai-forecast (reasoning)0.5260
Hand-written rules2.0930
Correct-adjustment rate
Higher is better
inertialai-forecast (reasoning)100%
Hand-written rules57%
0.5260
Scenario CRPS
≈4× lower than rule-based automation (2.0930)
100%
Correct adjustment
vs 57% for hand-written rules
4
Audited tools
Scale, shift, clamp, widen
Forecast + rationale
Output
Full adjustment trace

How We Evaluate

Forecast accuracy

MASE and CRPS on GIFT-Eval, normalized by the seasonal-naive baseline, against a set of public foundation-model baselines.

Reasoning correctness

Controlled scenarios with a known required operation: promotions scale up, outages shift down, stockout constraints clamp negatives, and uncertainty events widen intervals.

Serving performance

PyTorch eager, Triton HTTP, and Triton gRPC paths across batch sizes and client concurrency. gRPC batching is the efficient backend for throughput-oriented calls.

Bring Your Own Reasoning LLM

The forecaster is InertialAI's own model. The reasoning layer runs on a hosted LLM that you choose — pick for cost or capability. The model you select is the model that runs: there is no silent fallback.

Mistral

Mistral

Mistral Small 3.2
mistralai/mistral-small-3.2-24b-instruct
Small
$0.20 /M out
Mistral Medium 3.1
mistralai/mistral-medium-3.1
Medium
$2.00 /M out
OpenAI

OpenAI

GPT-5.4 mini
openai/gpt-5.4-mini
Medium
$4.50 /M out
GPT-5.5
openai/gpt-5.5
Large
$30 /M out
Google

Google

Gemini 2.5 Flash
google/gemini-2.5-flash
Medium
$2.50 /M out
Gemini 3 Flash
google/gemini-3-flash-preview
Medium
$3.00 /M out
Anthropic

Anthropic

Claude Sonnet 4.6
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4.6
Large
$15 /M out
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic/claude-opus-4.8
Large
$25 /M out

Choose Your Model

inertialai-forecast

Recurring forecast jobs, alert thresholds, capacity planning, and high-volume inference where signal history is enough.

inertialai-forecast (reasoning)

When the forecast depends on external context such as launch calendars, maintenance notes, market commentary, images, or operational constraints.